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Main Topic |
TICN Features |
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Market Review
The month of September 2008 will go down in memory as one of the most volatile months in stock market history. It is already being referred to as Black September. The credit crunch, which has been ongoing since the summer of 2007 began to claim more casualties. The casualties included some of the most significant financial institutions in the United States. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, who are the most significant institutions in the mortgage market as they own over 50% of the mortgage debt in the United States, were taken over by the American government. The government also came to the rescue of AIG, the insurance company which has provided insurance for all these loans, by taking an 85% stake in the firm. Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 protection and was subsequently taken over by Barclays Bank. Merrill Lynch was taken over by Bank of America. Warren Buffet invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs. Washington Mutual collapsed and was taken over which also happened to Wachovia one of America’s largest banks.
A rescue plan for financial institutions was put together but the negotiations and the playing of politics around the approval of this plan in Congress had a profound impact on the markets.
The net result of all this was that whilst it is easy to say that the markets were down by between 6 and 11% over the month of September, there were some days of extraordinary volatility. The Dow fell by more than 400 points on September 18th where it hit its lowest level since March 2008. This was caused by fears that the financial system was gong to collapse. Rumours of the rescue plan caused a significant recovery in the last few hours of the day, which were continued the following day. However, Congress failed to approve the plan on Monday 27th of September and this caused an even more dramatic 777 point fall in the stock market. A huge portion of that fall took place in a couple of minutes as the unexpected result of the vote against the bill was announced. The market turned around the following day and posted a rise of 485 points, its third largest rise ever.
The financial problems of the banks and their impact on the markets were compounded by the ongoing problems in the American economy, details of which were announced during the month of September. House sales, of both new and existing houses, continued to decline. House prices fell at the fastest rate ever. Unemployment continued to rise as did core inflation. Demand for consumer durables continued to fall. Although exports rose it was not fast enough to give confidence to the markets that the economy is recovering.
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-- CLICK HERE TO VIEW FULL SIZE GRAPH --
After all the gyrations, the Dow closed out on the month of September at 10851, a decline of 6%, whilst the Nasdaq closed at 2092 which is down 11.6% and the S + P 500 closed down 9.08% at 1166.
TICN stocks
The performance of the Dow in September was to decline by 6%. However, of the Ticn stocks on the research list, the following stocks increased during the month of September. SNV +12.5%, PSUN + 6.2%, INTU +5.1%, RLRN +2.4%, BJ +2.18%, JKHY +1.5%, FRED + 1.4% while BEBE, SONC, WWW and KFY all rose by less than 1%. Another 30 of the TICN list fell by less than the fall in the stock market.
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| TICN Members Support Webshop |
Testimonials |
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We have developed a series of Support and Educational Webshops that will save members both time and money.
These are live interactive sessions that you can receive from your home or office. |
| "The TICN organisation
is both professional and innovative with a
unique education
concept to successfully
investing in
shares. I highly
recommend their
seminars and support
as part of the ACCA
CPD credits process. As a full-time
accountant I
find the education and
support I have
received through TICN
very beneficial both
professionally and
privately in relation to
investing in the stock markets". |
| Gerry Quinn - Accountant,
Chairman Starchasers Investment Club
Sligo. |
| "I attended the TICN
MMCP Investment
seminar and have
made more money in
the last 5 months than
I have in my previous
5 years experience just
applying what was
taught to me by TICN." |
John Moylan,
Moylan Financial Services
Tipperary. |
| In my first year of
trading I made 62%
profit using the TICN
strategies and I expect
to do better in the
coming year due to the
advanced courses done
with TICN. I can now
make more money in
the market than I ever
could as a PAYE
worker." |
Pat Lynch,
Cork. |
| "After completing
the MMCP in April,
and paper trading in
May, I started with
$5,000 in June and
by December I had
turned my
investment into
$10,000 using the
TICN strategies as
taught to me at the
MMCP seminar." |
| Ian McKibbon,
Lisburn. |
| I really do believe
you have a great
organization - good
people, very
focused, very
straight forward and
democratic. I'm 50
this year and I can
honestly say its the
best decision I ever
made to get myself
educated in
investing... I should
have done it years
ago." |
John Daly,
Journalist - Cork |
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Our Support Webshops provide excellent explanations and examples all in a flexible & dynamic format that will truly meet your needs. And best of all you can attend for FREE!!
The increasingly popular Harvest Investor web shop held on a Tuesday evening at 8.00 p.m. increases the number of web shops available to members on a weekly basis. Like all web shops this can be heard on playback for up to 48 hours, provided that members register for the web shop before it starts. Such long access provides members with un-rivalled support in their trading and investing activities.
This web shop concentrates on analyzing the fundamentals of a stock and complements the material covered in the ever-popular Sunday and Wednesday evening web shops. |
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| September Events |
Did you Know? |
National Ploughing Championships
Ticn was at the National Ploughing Championships in the third week of September where we met many of our members in the glorious sunshine of Cuffesgrange. We also met many people who wished to avail of our services to now become educated about the stock market having learnt from bitter experience that lack of education is a great handicap in the market.
Belgian Seminar
This year our Advanced seminar was hosted by Ticn Belgium. Ticn members from around Europe came together to hear presentations on advanced trading strategies from speakers such as Darlene Nelson, John White and Dr. Jon Najarian from America. Darlene spoke about the power of Leaps and how, by focussing on making cents each day, one can profit from trading the QQQQs. John White was extremely impressive on non-directional trading using a variety of different spreads. Dr Jon Najarian spoke on a telecast from America to participants, giving his unique insights into the market, based on his knowledge and experience of being a market maker. This gives only a flavour of some of the material covered during the five days while many other speakers familiar to Irish members such as Owen O’Malley and Kevin Flynn also made presentations. Ticn will be bringing some of these speakers to Ireland in 2009. Watch this space!
UPCOMING EVENTS
ZERO RISK TRADES
Ticn will be holding another in its series of popular support nights in the Glenroyal hotel Maynooth, at 20.30 hours on Thursday October 16th. Owen O’Malley, C.E.O. of Ticn will be the guest speaker on the evening. The topic for the night will be Zero Risk Trades.
At this evening Owen will explain to members how they can protect their money and their profits and how to do this in a self-financing fashion. Was there ever a time when such an approach was more needed? This is the application of material that we teach on our advanced Elite courses. However, as we say from the very beginning of our MMCP, knowledge is not power but rather it is the “Application of Knowledge which gives true power”. Owen will break these advanced strategies down to their key elements so that you may apply them to your own portfolio.
We are also holding an information evening for your family, colleagues or friends who may be interested in our courses which will begin at 19.30 hours. If you bring two guests to this introduction, admission to the support evening is free to all otherwise the evening costs €20 to Ticn members or €30 to non-members.
To reserve your place for the evening, either at the support night or for your friends at the information evening contact Robbie Hughes at robbie.hughes@ticnireland.ie or on 086 1989518.
MMCP
MMCP seminars will be held in the following locations throughout the month of November;
The Springhill Court Hotel, Kilkenny from Friday to Sunday November 7th - 9th
The Galway Bay Hotel, Galway from Friday to Sunday November 14th – 16th
The Blarney Woolen Mills Hotel, Cork from Friday to Sunday November 21st- 23rd
The Glenroyal Hotel, Maynooth from Friday to Sunday November 28th- 30th.
To register for all courses contact 1800 367 693 or www.ticnireland.ie
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TICN provides FREE
webshops for people
who wish to learn more about TICN,
investment clubs
and the
Stockmarket!
TICN are currently
forming investment
clubs Nationwide.
TICN members can
complete the remaining
8 modules of the 'Elite
Investor' program with
a saving of 40% off
retail prices.
TICN Members can
repeat all training
modules for a NOMINAL
admin/facilities fee!!
We Provide a 100%
Moneyback guarantee
on MMCP seminars.
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| TICN Ireland - www.ticnireland.ie |
What we Do!
We teach people &
business how to
invest in shares
successfully.
How do we do that?
We educate members
through our seminars
and support them
through our
investment clubs
using the latest
communication
technology.
We teach people & businesses
how to:
1. Identify safe &
solid companies with
strong growth
prospects.
2. Choose the right
time to buy and more
importantly the right
time to sell.
3. Use proven
Strategies to
generate a monthly
income.
4. Invest directly
on-line with the
markets, saving time
& money efficiently.
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Education Centre -The Harvest Investor Webshop. |
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The Harvest Investor web shop.
Ticn has added another weekly webshop to the range of supports given to its members on an ongoing basis. The Harvest Investor concept is simple. It encourages Ticn members to do diligent research and to plant a crop of solid 4 x 4 companies. Then, by holding these solid companies over time, members can harvest ongoing income from these companies by doing simple renting (selling covered calls) and rolling (buy low and sell high) strategies.
In its initial phase, each webshop has had three distinct parts.
1. A discussion of the various issues affecting the overall market during the week
2. A fundamental analysis of one of the 4 x 4 companies
3. An educational piece on material available, but often overlooked, on the Valuelines page.
A total of twenty-five companies were analysed over a period of 13 weeks
All firms examined had to be full 4 x 4 companies. A close look was taken at these firms to ensure that they had cash in the bank, a very strong financial rating, good working capital positions and had strong sales and earnings growth rates, both historical and projected. Combining these filters with a desire to see good margins, great Returns on Capital and solid growth in book values, especially compared to other firms in their industries, allowed us to differentiate between the various firms available. Provided they showed us good Price to Book value and good PEG ratios the Harvest Investor team was willing to consider them for investment. Substantial price appreciation potential or PAP was also considered which allowed for a margin of error when investing in these companies. When the possibility of dollar strike prices was added into the equation the final selection of firms was made.
A group of seven possible companies suitable for investment was selected. These companies were spread over a variety of industries, were of different size but above all were seen as fundamentally sound firms worth investing in.
Time has been devoted to explaining each of these criteria used to select these stocks and why they were chosen. They go somewhat beyond the straight forward 4 x 4 analysis taught on the MMCP course and allow a distinction to be made between different 4 x 4 rock solid companies.
The second phase of the web shops began with the opening of a simulated account to allow positions to be taken in these stocks. A patient approach was taken to buying these stocks, waiting until opportunities presented themselves and given the volatility in the markets during the month of September 2008, there was no shortage of such opportunities.
Having bought the stocks, time was given to allow the stocks to rise or rally and when they had done so, calls were sold for out of the money strike prices, thus generating an income and reducing the break-even price of the stocks. Therefore, even if the account was called out of the stocks a profit was made on the position.
As we proceed into the future, it is hoped to illustrate for people the power of this simple approach to buying and holding stock and how it allows for people to prosper in the long run.
Frequently the question is asked whether or not such an approach can be taken in volatile markets. It seems in the current climate that the financial sector is fraught with difficulties. Therefore, the common sense approach is to seek out quality companies in other less distressed industries and take positions in them. As these positions are similar to a property-like asset, they can be used to generate an income each month. In other words, harvest a crop from the holdings as the months and seasons change.
This current phase of the web shop therefore consists of
1. A discussion of the various issues affecting the overall market during the week
2. An analysis of the most recent up to date value lines sheet on one of the companies
3. An explanation of any trading or investing activity, which has taken place in the simulator account during the previous week.
It is hoped that through the medium of this account the simple strategies of buy and hold with renting and rolling can be illustrated for web shop participants. In addition it is hoped that more advanced strategies taught on our Elite further education programme can also be demonstrated.
As people become more educated they learn further techniques for investing, which can, for example, allow them to profit by applying insurance to their portfolio and generating an income to pay for that insurance. Such an approach to investing allows investors to become more objective in their investment life as they know that, regardless of what happens, their positions are protected and they are generating an income. This combined with the basic fundamentalist approach to investment means that ultimately people can become relaxed but profitable Harvest Investors.
We would hope that members join us at the Harvest Investor web shops each Tuesday evening at 20.00 hours. Register as normal for the web shop in advance of this time and listen to it live or at your convenience anytime for up to 48 hours.
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